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Published by Bordier & Cie (Singapore) Ltd in its Monthly Market Update series, February 2026.

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The argument

The piece rests on two structural facts, one on the demand side and one on the supply side.

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Central bank demand

Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. The pace is off the peak years of 2022 and 2023, but the consequential change is in who is buying. Alongside long-standing accumulators such as Turkey, Kazakhstan and China, central banks including Poland, Brazil and the Philippines began buying between 2023 and 2025. Poland was the largest single official buyer of 2025, taking 100 tonnes, and has signalled an appetite to hold 700 tonnes, around 28 per cent of its total reserve assets. The global average allocation to gold across central bank reserves stood near 18 per cent at the end of December 2025, a level last seen in the 1990s. Individual holdings vary far more than that average suggests. The United States holds 8,133 tonnes, roughly 71 per cent of its reserves. China’s holding is around 8 per cent of its reserves. Gold has displaced the dollar in those reserves, visible as a reduction in US Treasury holdings. The piece is explicit about the risk on the other side. If developed-market central banks rebalance or sell gold to cover budget shortfalls, the argument weakens. Some European countries, and Singapore, have been net sellers in recent quarters.

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New supply

Some new gold deposit is normally found every year, however small. In the two years to publication, no new major deposit was found. The industry’s record of discoveries of at least two million ounces runs back thirty-five years, and two consecutive years without one had not happened before.
General information only. Not investment advice, not a solicitation and not an offer. Eligibility, services and terms differ by jurisdiction and by client. Speak to your banker about your own circumstances.
Source: Bordier & Cie (Singapore) Monthly Market Update, February 2026.